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One day in, predictions out

by Gerard Vroomen

July 03, 2011 - Filed under: Company

Comments (3)

For weeks volumes are written and Gigabytes are filled with analysis on what will happen in the Tour. Now thanks to one douchebag spectator, all that can go in the trash. I love it. So I will repeat what I have said earlier on twitter and in the comments section of this blog: Talk about Contador and Schleck finishing 1-2 (in whatever order) and the rest fighting for 3rd are premature. Those two will NOT finish 1-2.

My prediction last week was not borne out of some incredible insight into relative fitness or ability, but just the odds that something unexpected will happen. Cycling is dangerous, especially in a peloton with 200 fresh riders crashes will happen and they will affect the outcome. For the Amstel Gold Race this year I predicted one of two riders would crash, and I caught a lot of flak for wishing ill on them. But I wish none of the riders any ill, it’s just an inevitable part of the sport. And coincidentally, I was right.

But don’t think just about crashes; mechanicals, fitness, illness, hunger knocks, a lousy hotel the night before the key stage, any of this can affect the outcome.

That’s also the reason why my prediction didn’t include WHO would swoop into the top-2, as that is far too difficult to predict. Evans may seem a likely candidate, especially after yesterday, but there are still 20 days left and his track record when it comes to luck in the Tour isn’t great. So let’s hope for the best.

P.S. My usual Tim Krabbé Zoetemelk clause applies to the above prediction.

3 responses for this Entry

Chris says:

July 04, 2011

I'm curious what bikes are in the TdF. Is there a list of which bikes the riders have? Thanks.

Fish says:

July 03, 2011

I followed your earlier blogging about reducing the number of cars on bike race routes and was in tacit agreement. So now I have to wonder out loud:

Why are the spectators allowed to be so close that they annoy, interfere with, and endanger riders? The thrill of being so close to the peleton whizzing by or seeing your favorite rider(s) riding by solo is wonderful, but would be just as wonderful standing a meter further away from the edge of the course. Perhaps all the potential out of work drivers, photographers and VIPs can act as spectator chaperones to keep the road clear.

Nir says:

July 03, 2011

This is what makes fantasy cycling games so annoying to play. But it's also the same characteristic that makes cycling more "real" than other sports. There is much less control and I think that the frequent surprises, setbacks and obstacles faced by the teams and riders are what allows so many people to identify with the racing. I also think that it's also why pro cyclists tend to be much more humble and philosophical about their chances and capabilities in interviews compared with the sometimes ridiculous arrogance in many other sports.